[ANNOTATED OUTLINE — chapters draft into the sections below]

[ANNOTATED OUTLINE — chapters draft into the sections below]

PART I — THE AUTOPSY

• Ch 1 · "Deduction" Is a Lie. The three inferences (deduction / induction / abduction); Peirce's cycle; why Holmes's move is the fertile, least-secure one. The Afghanistan read — and the fact that Watson already told you the answer on page one. (A1, A2, F1)
• Ch 2 · The Rigged Universe. Doyle as God; crime built backwards from the solution; survivorship (the eighty detectives in the ditch); the base-rate Holmes never computes; "The Yellow Face" as the one time the author let him lose. (A2, B1, F1)
• Ch 3 · The Cheap Séance. Cold reading, the Forer/Barnum effect, mentalists who reproduce a "Holmesian read" with zero deduction; confidence is the tell, not the content; the spliced-prop irony of Holmes's own showpiece. (B3)
• Ch 4 · The Brain That Wants to Believe. Patternicity & apophenia; confirmation bias; WYSIATI; the conjunction fallacy as the literal engine of "brilliant deduction"; why your inner Holmes is a hazard. (B1, B2)

PART II — THE RESURRECTION

• Ch 5 · The Engine He Lacked (Bayes). Prior × likelihood → posterior, one clean worked example; why "eliminate the impossible" is almost-right and subtly deadly; the courtroom triptych (Collins, Clark, de Berk); the maxim English law actually struck down (The Popi M). (C1, C3, F1)
• Ch 6 · Reading Real Traces. Locard & the science built after Holmes; NAS 2009 & PCAST 2016 — what survived peer review and what turned out to be junk (bite-marks, hair, arson); Mayfield; the myth of zero error. (A3, D, D2)
• Ch 7 · The Tell Is Real — Just Not Where You Look. Deception detection (Ekman vs the backlash; ~54%); the polygraph's pseudoscience; forensic linguistics that actually works (the Unabomber's idiolect); profiling that mostly doesn't. (D4, D5)
• Ch 8 · Machine Abduction. ML/Bayesian nets as industrialized inference-to-best-explanation (Pearl); the new Holmes is a model — with all the bias baggage; COMPAS/ProPublica; facial-recognition wrongful arrests. (E1, E2)
• Ch 9 · The Calibrated Mind. Meehl (actuarial > clinical); Tetlock's chimps and superforecasters; base rates, small updates, perpetual beta; how humility + a scorecard beats genius. (B4, C2)

PART III — THE PRACTICE

• Ch 10 · A Real Method. The anti-Holmes protocol: observe → multiple hypotheses → priors → hunt disconfirming evidence → update → hold loosely. Turning the reader into an honest abductor. (synthesis)
• Ch 11 · The Ethics of the Reading Eye. When inference becomes intrusion: Panopticon → Foucault → Zuboff; predictive privacy; the exoneration/surveillance double-edge (Golden State Killer via GEDmatch; BTK via metadata). (F3)
• Ch 12 · The Resurrection Complete. What a genuine 21st-century "consulting detective" is: human + machine + method + humility. The dream made real — and more humbling than Doyle dared. (synthesis)
• Epilogue · The Game, For Real.
• Appendices · Bayes in one page · A bestiary of biases · The junk-science watchlist · Further reading.